BTC cycle strategy
BTC cycle strategy
TradesBitcoin (BTC)
BTC spot only, no leverage: adjusts exposure by the daily cycle reading.
Backtest CAGR48.7%
Largest fall from a peak38.1%
Platform backtest2020-05-13 – 2026-10-05
Data updates paused at 2026-10-04 · Last approved data retained; check the close date.
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13 modelsHow to read CAGR and drawdown →
Top-10 crowding reversal
Top-10 crowding reversal · Long
TradesTop-10 perpetual contracts
The month's top-10 perpetuals by market cap: buys the reversal after crowding, exits after a fixed time.
Backtest CAGR59.6%
Largest fall from a peak41.3%
Platform backtest2020-01-01 – 2026-10-02
CAGR × drawdown: find your risk preference
Research backtest↑ Higher CAGRLarger drawdown →
01BTC cycle strategy02Trend following · BTC core (spot + perpetual)03Trend following · BTC onset leverage04Trend following · ETH 4h long / short05Trend following · BTC + ETF flow filter06Trend following · Altcoin onset window07Trend following · Top-10 long/short momentum08Intraday signal ensemble · Selected signals09Volatility DCA10Funding carry11Top-10 crowding reversal · Long12Top-10 crowding reversal · Short13Implied-volatility surprise confirmation
Read risk and return together. These are the selected research periods; some periods differ. This is not a same-period ranking.
All strategy results
Negative results stay visible.BTC cycle strategy
BTC cycle strategy
TradesBitcoin (BTC)
BTC spot only, no leverage: adjusts exposure by the daily cycle reading.
Backtest CAGR48.7%
Largest fall from a peak38.1%
Platform backtest2020-05-13 – 2026-10-05
Trend following
Trend following · BTC core (spot + perpetual)
TradesBitcoin (BTC)
Long-only BTC daily trend strategy, 0-2x.
Backtest CAGR37.1%
Largest fall from a peak31.6%
Platform backtest2020-05-13 – 2026-10-03
Trend following
Trend following · BTC onset leverage
TradesBitcoin (BTC)
Same entries and exits as Trend following · BTC core; the position is enlarged only for a while after a trend onset (max 2x).
Backtest CAGR44.4%
Largest fall from a peak34.5%
Platform backtest2020-05-13 – 2026-10-03
Trend following
Trend following · ETH 4h long / short
TradesEthereum (ETH)
ETH perpetual trend strategy, long or short, -1.5x to +1.5x.
Backtest CAGR35.7%
Largest fall from a peak41.2%
Platform backtest2021-05-15 – 2026-10-03
Trend following
Trend following · BTC + ETF flow filter
TradesBitcoin (BTC)
Trend following · BTC core with the position reduced by the flows of the US spot BTC ETFs.
Backtest CAGR23.4%
Largest fall from a peak25.8%
Platform backtest2024-01-20 – 2026-10-03
Trend following
Trend following · Altcoin onset window
TradesSOL / BNB / DOGE / XRP
Holds four large-cap altcoin perpetuals, long only, only for a while after a BTC trend onset; flat otherwise.
Backtest CAGR22.7%
Largest fall from a peak9.6%
Platform backtest2023-06-11 – 2026-10-03
Trend following
Trend following · Top-10 long/short momentum
TradesTop-10 perpetual contracts
Long / short momentum on the top-10 perpetuals by market cap: long the strongest few, short the weakest few; flat while BTC's long-term trend is weak.
Backtest CAGR25.6%
Largest fall from a peak30.2%
Platform backtest2020-04-10 – 2026-10-04
Intraday signal ensemble
Intraday signal ensemble · Selected signals
TradesBitcoin (BTC) / Ethereum (ETH)
Intraday BTC / ETH perpetual strategy: a few selected signals scored by a model; only the top scores trade.
Backtest CAGR106.7%
Largest fall from a peak33.3%
Platform backtest2022-09-27 – 2026-10-03
Volatility DCA
Volatility DCA
TradesBitcoin (BTC) / Ethereum (ETH)
BTC and ETH spot, half the capital each; a new ladder starts only in high volatility without a deep drawdown.
Backtest CAGR18.7%
Largest fall from a peak15.5%
Platform backtest2020-05-13 – 2026-10-02
Funding carry
Funding carry
TradesBitcoin (BTC) / Ethereum (ETH)
BTC and ETH long spot, short perpetual (market neutral); the return is the funding rate.
Backtest CAGR1.8%
Largest fall from a peak0.3%
Platform backtest2022-01-03 – 2026-10-03
Top-10 crowding reversal
Top-10 crowding reversal · Long
TradesTop-10 perpetual contracts
The month's top-10 perpetuals by market cap: buys the reversal after crowding, exits after a fixed time.
Backtest CAGR59.6%
Largest fall from a peak41.3%
Platform backtest2020-01-01 – 2026-10-02
Top-10 crowding reversal
Top-10 crowding reversal · Short
TradesTop-10 perpetual contracts
The short-only mirror of the long version.
Backtest CAGR4.6%
Largest fall from a peak43.9%
Platform backtest2020-01-01 – 2026-10-02
Implied-volatility surprise confirmation
Implied-volatility surprise confirmation
TradesBitcoin (BTC) / Ethereum (ETH)
BTC and ETH perpetuals: enters when BTC's implied volatility moves unexpectedly and the price confirms the same direction, long or short, and exits after a fixed number of days.
Backtest CAGR33.6%
Largest fall from a peak32.2%
Platform backtest2020-10-27 – 2026-10-04
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